Description

This analysis provides a forecast of JASMY prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.020800 0.026705 0.034790 0.047156 6.657007e-02 0.097889 0.157451
2024-12-15 0.014179 0.020117 0.029607 0.047353 8.411355e-02 0.172006 0.489910
2024-12-22 0.011237 0.016958 0.027061 0.048837 1.051413e-01 0.302397 2.099174
2024-12-29 0.009345 0.014719 0.024907 0.049369 1.255904e-01 0.519665 22.037859
2025-01-05 0.007780 0.012580 0.022094 0.046616 1.338560e-01 0.761705 NaN
2025-01-12 0.006748 0.011168 0.020289 0.045402 1.473708e-01 1.235479 NaN
2025-01-19 0.006241 0.010640 0.020205 0.048999 1.908493e-01 3.427703 NaN
2025-01-26 0.005945 0.010461 0.020851 0.055476 2.735061e-01 26.760423 NaN
2025-02-02 0.005675 0.010272 0.021412 0.062356 3.996205e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 0.005224 0.009604 0.020526 0.063004 4.789022e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 0.004847 0.009038 0.019771 0.063830 5.801824e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.004495 0.008476 0.018893 0.063581 6.782192e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.004057 0.007714 0.017434 0.060534 7.347171e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.003734 0.007185 0.016571 0.060323 9.047969e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.003498 0.006830 0.016149 0.062374 1.261778e+00 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.003270 0.006457 0.015570 0.063120 1.687266e+00 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.003000 0.005942 0.014411 0.059264 1.733275e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.002794 0.005567 0.013640 0.057573 2.002415e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.002702 0.005469 0.013783 0.062599 3.859413e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.002656 0.005483 0.014328 0.071780 1.313289e+01 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.002605 0.005477 0.014804 0.081704 1.092285e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.002480 0.005252 0.014387 0.082647 6.380217e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.002368 0.005050 0.014020 0.083852 9.693797e+08 NaN NaN